Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

Gossypium thurberi, a threatened wild cotton species native to northern Mexico and southwestern USA, is globally important because its agronomic traits can be introgressed into cultivated improve fiber quality resistance biotic abiotic stressors. However, studies on the current future potential distribution of are scarce. The objectives this study were (1) develop model G thurberi using Geographic Information System platform, (2) determine environmental factors that influence in Mexico, (3) estimate under climates. We analyzed following variables: Annual Available Soil Water (mm year−1, AASW), Flowering Growing Degree Days (FGDD), absolute minimum temperature (°C, Tminabs), altitude (amsl, ALT). Results showed G. estimated at 112,727 square kilometers, projected drastically reduced by 77 86%, considering possible increase 1.5 °C 2 near-future (2021–2040) mid-future (2041–2060) climates, respectively, 100 mm reduction average annual precipitation both greatest will areas Sonora (Mexico) adjoining Arizona (USA), where largest populations currently reported. AASW, FGDD, ALT jointly with AASW as dominant factor climate change. may continue harbor present 0.2–55.6 FGDD 242–547, between 550 1561 amsl. country includes new suitable areas, including one Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, serve refuge areas. findings contribute design more precise collection efforts conservation strategies prevent extinction.